The odds of a traditional White Christmas—snow on the ground on December 25th—vary dramatically across the United States. While weather patterns are unpredictable, certain regions consistently deliver winter wonderlands. Recent long-range forecasts suggest a slight increase in colder, drier conditions leading up to the holidays, potentially boosting the chances of snow in many areas.
A new analysis by SIXT, leveraging data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), identifies 25 locations with the highest probability of snowfall on Christmas Day. These destinations also offer a range of festive activities, maximizing the winter holiday experience.
Why This Matters: The desire for a White Christmas is deeply rooted in cultural tradition and nostalgia. It’s a significant driver of winter tourism, and knowing where to go for reliable snow increases the likelihood of a magical holiday experience. This also highlights the regional variations in climate and weather patterns across the US, which are becoming increasingly important in the context of climate change.
The Top Destinations for Snow
Fairbanks, Alaska tops the list with a nearly guaranteed 100% chance of snowfall. Situated just 120 miles south of the Arctic Circle, Fairbanks experiences limited daylight but offers spectacular views of the Northern Lights alongside winter activities like dog sledding and ice fishing.
Aspen, Colorado (99.3%) and Breckenridge, Colorado (97.7%) follow closely behind, providing world-class skiing, snowboarding, and après-ski options. These resorts capitalize on consistent snowfall and festive atmospheres.
Here’s a complete rundown of the top 25 cities with the highest probability of a White Christmas:
- Fairbanks, Alaska — 100%
- Aspen, Colorado — 99.3%
- Breckenridge, Colorado — 97.7%
- Marquette, Michigan — 95.6%
- Duluth, Minnesota — 92.2%
- Bozeman, Montana — 91.1%
- Idaho Falls, Idaho — 88.1%
- Laramie, Wyoming — 78.4%
- New Hope, Minnesota — 78.8%
- Fargo, North Dakota — 77.6%
- Sioux Falls, South Dakota — 77.6%
- St. Cloud, Minnesota — 76.5%
- Minneapolis, Minnesota — 73.6%
- Eau Claire, Wisconsin — 73.7%
- Casper, Wyoming — 70.9%
- Green Bay, Wisconsin — 66.3%
- Missoula, Montana — 65.9%
- Concord, New Hampshire — 62.6%
- Burlington, Vermont — 62.3%
- Bangor, Maine — 61.1%
- Mason City, Iowa — 60.5%
- Grand Rapids, Michigan — 55.6%
- Syracuse, New York — 56.3%
- Rochester, New York — 51.5%
- Ithaca, New York — 51.2%
Planning Your Winter Getaway
These destinations combine high snowfall probabilities with a variety of holiday activities. Whether you prefer a quiet family retreat or an action-packed winter vacation, these locations offer a blend of snowy landscapes and festive cheer.
Ultimately, the chance of waking up to a White Christmas depends on geography. These 25 locations represent the best odds in the US, promising a memorable and magical holiday experience.
